Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
