Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
